Industry Trends · via NAHB

NAHB's 2026 Housing Outlook: What National Builder Data Means for the Charleston Market

NAHB's chief economist Robert Dietz summed up 2026 in five words: "cautious optimism" built on "incremental gains." That's a fair description of what we're seeing in Charleston too — not a boom, not a bust, but a market slowly finding its footing after several volatile years.

What the Data Shows

NAHB's national outlook projects single-family starts up a modest 1.0% to 940,000 units in 2026, while multifamily starts fall 5% to 392,000. Mortgage rates dropped to roughly 6.2% following Federal Reserve activity, with two additional quarter-point cuts anticipated this year. Existing-home inventory nationally is climbing from the ultra-tight 2.3 months' supply of 2021 toward a projected 4.6 months in 2026 — a genuine, if gradual, shift toward a more balanced market. Remodeling, meanwhile, is expected to grow another 3% in inflation-adjusted terms.

Why This Matters for Charleston

Charleston has consistently outperformed the national inventory story — our own market has been tighter than the national 4.6-month figure across most price bands, particularly in the $600K-$1.5M range where buyer demand has stayed strong. But the direction of travel matters: a national shift toward more balance, plus continued rate relief, should translate locally into slightly more negotiating room for buyers than we've seen the past two years, without a wholesale collapse in pricing.

What This Means If You're Buying, Selling, or Building

Buyers should treat 2026 as a window where patience pays off — rate relief and rising inventory both favor a more measured search rather than a rushed offer. Sellers should still price realistically against current comps rather than 2022-era peaks. Builders and developers should read the single-family-up, multifamily-down split as validation for continued for-sale product in well-located Charleston submarkets, with more caution warranted on speculative multifamily.

Source: National Association of Home Builders, "2026 Housing Outlook: Ongoing Challenges, Cautious Optimism and Incremental Gains," February 2026. via NAHB

Trying to time a Charleston purchase, sale, or build in this market? Contact Chris Eller directly for a read on how the local market actually compares to the national picture.