Industry Trends · via Builder Magazine

Zonda's 2026 Housing Forecast: What Flat Starts and a High-Risk Environment Mean for Charleston Buyers

Zonda's chief economist Ali Wolf didn't sugarcoat it: 2026 is a "fragile" balance of conflicting economic signals. For buyers watching the market and wondering whether to move now or wait, that fragility cuts both ways.

What the Forecast Shows

Zonda projects national housing starts essentially flat in 2026 at just under 1.3 million units — single-family starts edging up 1.0% to 935,000 while multifamily falls 2.9% to 340,000. New single-family home sales are expected to grow modestly, up 1.5% to 660,000 units, with mortgage rates forecast in the low-6% range. Zonda flags a roughly 40% recession probability alongside labor market stress and oversupply risk concentrated in Texas and Florida.

Why This Matters for Charleston

Charleston doesn't carry the same oversupply risk profile Zonda flags for Texas and Florida Sunbelt markets — our new-construction pipeline is more constrained by land scarcity and permitting than by speculative overbuilding, which is a structural advantage if a broader Sunbelt correction does materialize. That said, "flat starts" nationally does mean less new competing inventory coming online, which tends to support pricing in supply-constrained markets like ours more than in fast-growing ones.

What This Means If You're Buying or Building

Buyers weighing new construction should ask specifically how a builder is managing exposure to national economic uncertainty — contract terms, rate-lock options, and completion guarantees matter more in a "fragile balance" year like this one. Anyone building speculative product for sale should watch the Sunbelt oversupply risk closely even though Charleston's own risk profile is lower, since regional market sentiment can still move faster than local fundamentals.

Source: Builder Magazine (builderonline.com), "Forecast 2026: Zonda Projects Flat Starts, High-Risk Environment," November 2025. via Builder Magazine

Trying to time a purchase or build in this market? Contact Chris Eller directly for a grounded read on Charleston's outlook.